Marlins' Edward Cabrera can deliver boost for fantasy owners

Any time a pitcher has an arm injury, it’s hard to trust them the second they return. Well, unless that pitcher’s name is Jacob deGrom. 

You start to wonder: Will he be the pitcher he was before the injury? Will he pitch enough innings to be a viable fantasy option? Was there a need to make “Speed 2: Cruise Control”? (Obviously it wasn’t needed, especially without Keanu, but Willem Dafoe as the villain? C’mon, it should’ve been awesome.) 

The only thing you should be wondering: Does your team have enough to win your league? If not, any pitcher who has shown capability in the past is a good candidate to show it when they return from injury. 

Miami’s Edward Cabrera is 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 28.8 percent strikeout rate, 12.8 percent walk rate and 13.9 percent swinging-strike rate in his first six starts. 

In three starts since returning on Aug. 5 from a bout with elbow tendinitis that cost him close to two months, Cabrera has been on fire, tossing 14 ²/₃ scoreless innings while striking out 21 (12.9 per nine) and limiting opponents to a .113 average. 

Among starters with a minimum of 10 innings pitched this month, Cabrera entered the weekend ranked third in strikeout rate (37.5 percent) and was one of two pitchers with a 0.00 ERA (Chris Bassitt, who took the mound Friday for the Mets, was the other). He also had the third-lowest opponents’ average and the ninth-best swinging-strike rate (15 percent). The only downfall: He walked 12.5 percent of the batters he faced, the 10th-worst mark in the majors this month. 

Despite throwing just 30 ¹/₃ innings this year, Cabrera is one of those talented arms you can’t help but be drawn to. It doesn’t hurt that he is on a team with a reputation for developing young pitchers. 

Among starters with a minimum of 30 innings pitched, Cabrera’s swinging-strike rate ranked 12th, his 10.68 strikeouts per nine was the 17th-best mark in the major,s and his .152 opponents’ average was the best in the league. 

The 24-year-old has an arsenal of nasty stuff, including a 96 mph four-seamer he uses 23.4 percent of the time and which opponents are hitting .111 against (.171 xBA). And that isn’t even his best (or most-used) pitch. 

Cabrera uses his 92.9 mph changeup the most (36.1 percent usage rate), and opponents are hitting .159 against it with a .162 expected batting average, .182 slugging percentage and 31.1 percent whiff rate. Opponents are also hitting .045 against his slider (.158 xBA), a pitch he uses 17.2 percent of the time with a 47.5 percent whiff rate. He even dominates with his curveball, throwing it 15.4 percent of the time with a .143 opponents’ average and 37.1 whiff rate. 

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So, why is this hard-throwing Marlin on just 36.4 percent of ESPN rosters? 

Outside of missing all of July and a good portion of June, Cabrera hasn’t pitched deep into games; he has completed six innings twice this year and only once in seven starts in 2021. His 12.8 percent walk rate is the third-worst mark in the majors among pitchers with a minimum of 30 innings. His strand rate (90.4 percent) and his .209 BABIP are unsustainably high and, like his 2.96 expected ERA, 3.58 FIP and 3.75 xFIP, indicates there will be regression. 

Considering he has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his six starts, it is right to be skeptical. It is good to understand his numbers will not remain as pristine as they’ve been over this small six-game sample. 

But metrics don’t point to a pitcher who will completely implode and be an untrustworthy option. (FYI: He should be especially trustworthy Monday when he faces the Athletics, who entered the weekend with a league-worst .215 team average.) Assuming he stays healthy, and that appears to be a reasonably big if, Roto Rage believes Cabrera is a young, vastly underowned talent worthy of a roster spot. 

Pick him up … now! 

Here’s a look at some other, mostly underowned, arms who can become a nice piece to your rotation: 

Lance McCullers took the mound last Saturday for the Astros for the first time since Game 4 of the ALDS on Oct. 12, 2021. Though he walked 19 percent of the batters he faced (a little expected rust), he earned the win after allowing two hits over six scoreless innings and striking out five. Before taking the mound Friday night, McCullers was rostered in 70 percent of ESPN leagues after being the most-added pitcher this week. 

Seattle’s George Kirby (37.2 percent rostered) has not lost since June 27 — going 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA, 44-6 strikeout-walk rate and .599 opponents’ OPS. All three of those wins have come this month, and he has allowed three earned runs or less in 14 of his 17 starts this season. As incredible as the 24-year-old rookie has been, there is one thing to be mindful of: The Mariners may start to limit his innings, as he already has pitched 90 ²/₃ innings this season, a career-high at any level (college included). 

Before taking the mound for the Royals on Friday, Brady Singer (48.1 percent rostered) was 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA, 58-15 strikeout-walk rate and .226 opponents’ average over his previous eight starts. Not only had he pitched at least six innings in all but one of those outings, he had allowed more than three earned only once in that span (and just four times in his first 19 starts). 

Two other young Marlins to keep an eye on: Lefties Braxton Garrett (12.2 percent rostered) and Jesus Luzardo (29.2 percent). Garrett was 0-4 with a 4.22 ERA and .274 opponents’ average over his past four starts, but has a 12.4 swinging-strike rate and 31.4 percent called-strikes-plus-whiff rate. Luzardo was 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA and .191 opponents’ average in his first three starts since returning from a strained forearm that kept him on the IL since May. In nine starts this year, he is striking out 11.35 per nine while limiting opponents to a .181 average. He also has a 13.8 percent swinging strike rate and 31.2 percent called strikes plus whiff rate.

Big hits 

Julio Urias SP, Dodgers 

Hasn’t lost since June 12 — going 10-0 with a 1.99 ERA, 67-11 strikeout-walk rate and .198 opponents’ average over his past 11 starts. 

Vaughn Grissom SS, Braves 

The rookie had at least one hit and at least one run in eight of his first nine big league games — going 13-for-32 (.406) with two homers, seven RBIs, 11 runs, two stolen bases and a 1.113 OPS. 

Justin Steele SP, Cubs 

Has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his past eight starts — going 2-2 with a 1.67 ERA, 50 strikeouts and .245 opponents’ average. 

Max Muncy 1B/2B/3B, Dodgers 

Though he was still hitting .185 for the season, he was hitting .320 with six homers, 13 RBIs, 10 runs and 1.184 OPS in his first 14 games this month. 

Big whiffs 

Riley Greene OF, Tigers 

The rookie struck out 44 times (the most in the majors) in his first 27 games of the second half. He is 4-for-35 (.114) with three RBIs and 16 strikeouts over his previous eight games before Friday. 

Pablo Lopez SP, Marlins 

Last win came on July 26, and he has gone 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA, three homers allowed and .378 opponents’ average in his past four starts. 

Matt Chapman 3B, Blue Jays 

After hitting .325 and a 1.095 OPS in July, he hit .148 with 23 strikeouts and a .567 OPS in his first 15 games this month. 

Sean Manaea SP, Padres 

Allowed 10 home runs and 35 runs (29 earned) over his past eight starts, going 3-3 with a 6.87 ERA and .321 opponents’ average in that span. 

Check swings 

• Christian Walker of Arizona entered the weekend hitting .223 for the season, but he ranked 15th in the majors in average this month (.349). He also had six homers and 17 RBIs, tied for the most in the majors in August. The 31-year-old also had hit .280 with 23 RBIs (sixth most in the majors) since the break, and is still 35 percent available in ESPN leagues. 

• Baltimore’s Felix Bautista is rostered in fewer than 35 percent of ESPN leagues, but had five saves and two holds, with a 1.08 ERA, 25-4 strikeout-walk rate and .113 opponents’ average, in his past 16 appearances entering Friday. All five of his saves during that span came in nine appearances since July 28 (0-1, 1.93 ERA, .188 opponents average). 
• Since being traded to the Cardinals, Jordan Montgomery is 3-0 with a 0.54 ERA (1.80 FIP), 17-3 strikeout-walk rate and .203 opponents’ average. 
• Equally as impressive as Montgomery, Jose Quintana is 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA, 16 strikeouts and .200 opponents’ average in his first three starts for St. Louis. He also is 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA over his past five starts and is available in 60 percent or more of ESPN leagues. 
• Despite hitting just .248 with 21 strikeouts in his first 15 games with the Red Sox, Tommy Pham has been a solid source for runs (11). He also had three homers, 10 RBIs and a .749 OPS in that span. 
• Royals rookie Vinnie Pasquantino is still available in about 75 percent of ESPN leagues, and is 21-for-58 (.362) with five homers, nine RBIs, eight runs, six walks and a 1.105 OPS in his first 16 games this month. He was hitting .309 with seven homers, 13 RBIs, 20-13 strikeout-walk rate and a .893 OPS in his previous 33 games before the weekend. 

Team name of the week 

Schwarber Shop

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